So you doubt the "predictability" of the game, eh?

    Many referees over the years have expressed scepticism about the notion of preparing for a game by studying the teams, the tactics, the individuals, the disciplinary measures they have endured.  Some even shuddered that we were pre-judging the game unfairly, and pre-judging the players most of all.

    The scepticism has diminished now, with the emphasis in MLS and among national referees on exactly the professional approach Ed and I (and others) used in our own careers.  And I'm sure that referees have become aware of no less an official than Collina advocating in his book what we did for years and wrote about in our book.  (We didn't teach him; he figured it out for himself.)  It is indeed hard to believe that in the first year or two of MLS, referees were refused access to disciplinary information, because the powers-that-be--not one a referee, mind you--thought our merry whistlers would be biased against the regular miscreants.  But we have progressed . . .

     In case there is any lingering doubt about the predictability of certain events in a soccer match, and that referees ought to be aware of them, read these comments from last week after two difficult games in Europe.

    To set the scene, we have to go back to a November 25 match in Europe, between Villarreal and Manchester United.  It ended up 0-0, but Cristiano Ronaldo (42 goals last season) was the target of some rough treatment and one opponent was eventually sent off after leaving stud-marks in Ronaldo's thigh.  The Manchester United winger was the target not only because of his great season last year but also because he was a late inclusion in the side for this match.  Many players returning from injury or worried about a "niggle" here or there back away from challenges, and then become even more victimized.

    Fast forward a few days to the "derby" match between Manchester United and Manchester City last weekend.  Do you suppose that the referee (Howard Webb) would have read about the match in Spain?  Of course!  And do you suppose that he would be ready for some systematic fouling from either or perhaps both teams?  Again, yes!  And do you suppose he and all the players would be aware that Ronaldo was the favorite to win the "Ballon d'Or", symbolic of the player of the year in Europe?  Almost certainly!  And now here's the quote from one English newspaper:

    The only target yesterday for "systematic fouling", the term Ferguson used to describe opponents' treatment of Ronaldo after a bruising night in Villarreal last week, was Wright-Phillips, with four visiting players booked for fouling the England international. "United have experience of controlling the game and dictating the play and sometimes they do that by breaking the momentum of their opponents' attacks," said Hughes. "Shaun was stopped on numerous occasions in good situations. It showed United felt he was a real threat and that is something all managers will target."

    There's a lot in that paragraph to pay attention to.  Systematic fouling or persistent infringement targeting one player, Ronaldo in Spain, but Wright-Phillips in Manchester, and dealt with by the referee.  Notice Mark Hughes' remark that sometimes "they do that by breaking the momentum of their opponents' attack" (that is, by fouling).  And note "something all managers will target".

    If you go into a game believing that this sort of stuff isn't planned or doesn't happen, and if you go into the game unprepared for it, you probably also believe in fairies . . .

   

Comments

[D. S.]

Mr. Evans, I agree with the theme of this article, but I am somewhat skeptical about the illustration, quoting as it does the wisdom of Mark Hughes. When Hughes says "all managers" (cf. the last sentence), he really means "one manager, namely Mark Hughes". Evidence? In each of his four seasons at Blackburn (2004-05 through 2007-08), Blackburn was at the wrong end of the disciplinary table (see http://www.premierleague.com/page/Statistics/0,,12306,00.html). Since he has taken over at Man City, they are drifting in that direction as well. Man City has two players in the top-20 this season in fouls committed. Therefore, it is clear how Mark Hughes prepares his teams, and consequently, I am guessing he must have been surprised to be at the receiving end of his cynical hacker style.

A quick check of statistics would've reminded Howard Webb of Hughes' tactics, and also pointed to him the fact that Man Utd are the one of the worst offenders in the league this season in terms of cautions and send-offs. No wonder he was willing to dish out more.